Saudi Arabia's leader is driving his country on a dangerous path

 Some time ago I wrote a blog 

Hypocrisy; US take on Saudi Arabia

I argued that US and Biden needed to make overtures and that despite MBS being a dictator he had made some good efforts for women rights and curbing the domination of extremist clerics.

True, but after the latest OPEC+ decisions of reducing production in line with Russia's interest, I doubt that MBS will be able to lead Saudi Arabia into a safe future. It appears, he suffers from the same narcissist syndrome that many isolated dictators suffer from. 

The OPEC decision coming currently aims to drive prices up shortly before a mid-term election where Democrats are fighting for control of the Senate and perhaps retain control of the Congress. MBS is trying to help Republicans or more so Trump whom he, and many others in the Arab World consider a friend due to his Iran policy.

Underlying is also a personal vendetta with Biden who during the Presidential campaign said he will make Saudi Arabia a pariah for the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident journalist who was assassinated by agents of the Saudi government at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey.

In both rationale for his decision is an element of megalomania rather than statesmanship.

Trump is a racist who views Arabs and Muslims as xxx; he might have been hawkish on Iran, but Biden is not Obama as to policy on Iran and world affairs have altered dramatically after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Smart diplomacy says that it is the appropriate time to restore the alliance with the US, especially after Biden made the ouverture with his visit to Saudi Arabia. Iran is in the Russian camp, but China and India are on the fence, trying not to be lured in, same as Turkey. Saudi Arabia is not in the league of an almost nonaligned China, so why should it align itself with Russia? Not reasonable or well though. The smart thing was to try and get leverage on the US in its struggle with Iran. Israel, at the beginning of the conflict tried to take an in the middle stand to be drawn soon back to its natural position with the US. Israel has more influence than Saudi Arabia with Trump or Biden US than Saudi Arabia.

As to the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, it was a sign of personal weakness. Khashoggi did not constitute a real danger to MBS. His botched assassination was unprofessional and stupid. It was caught without possibility of denial. He could not get out of it. The best would have been to swallow it and try to let the world forget rather than get offended when faced with it. Biden was driven to bump fists with MBS, it should have been enough. Smart diplomacy and the interests of Saudi Arabia should have been a main concern rather than empty pride.

Like all dictators MBS overestimates his strength. Saudi Arabia is rich but the war in Yemen indicates that it has no military strength. US weapons protect it, and its army is barely effective despite years of support and training. 

On the development level, it is still at nascent stage. Prince Mohammed in 2017, unveiled Neom. It is Saudi Arabia's flagship business and tourism development on the Red Sea coast. It is a central project in the 2030 Vision outlining the kingdom's plans to diversify the economy. Talking about smart cities, Saudi Arabia is creating a cognitive city, Neom, which envisages what a city must provide its citizens 20-30 years ahead of time. It is building it now with a $500 billion outlay. Urban planning and living are at the heart of this model, with 95% of the land being devoted to nature.

MBS is proud of his city, like a child with a new toy. But what is Neom? Could it be a revolutionary Silicon Valley? Or just a new consumerism monster? Stil early on to say. Yet I doubt that creativity can develop without freedom. It remains copying, reproducing, and consume. Nothing to compare with NASA overall planetary defense strategy, DART’s impact with the asteroid Dimorphos demonstrated this month a viable mitigation technique for protecting the planet from an Earth-bound asteroid or comet, if one were discovered.

MBS should reconsider his strategy and go back to soft diplomacy and to where the interests of Saudi Arabia really lie. The American people, including Republicans will not forget that Saudi Arabia is contributing to raising inflation. Same goes for Europeans.