Putin’s experience is of being able to get away with almost anything he wants

Ukraine is paying the price for emboldening Putin by turning a blind eye to his behaviour in Syria. Compromising on human rights in one country (not in the European backyard) came back to hit us all in Ukraine, and who knows where else. 

Today NATO is dithering afraid of expanding the war. The threat of war is a strong weapon and the fear of war may be a drive for Putin to nibble all around the world increasing his power to fulfill his dreams of 'making Russia great again''.

Martin Chulov Middle East correspondent Wed 9 Mar 2022 19.28 GMT

''Even in its infancy, the Russian war in Ukraine has many parallels with the conflict in Syria: barely restrained savagery, the mass flight of terrified civilians, and wanton destruction. Now the use of foreboding pretexts can be added to a growing list, which was born amid the ruins of Grozny, Crimea and Donbas and fine-tuned on the civilian population of Syria’s beleaguered north.''  

A former senior Nato officer told the Guardian; 

“We are all victims of our experience, and Putin’s experience is of being able to get away with almost anything he wants in every dimension of warfare. The blatant fostering of frozen conflicts in high-profile nations such as Georgia and Ukraine, the widespread and hardly concealed undermining of governance through hybrid warfare, the use of the most brutal tactics, crushing of whole towns and cities along with their populations. 

“His experience is that you can grind out a win using heavy explosives in the full glare of western media attention. And with an extremely effective control of his own [patriotic] population, he has little to fear at home.”

The difference is that this time, his war is in Europe thus the strong sanctions that among other things have brought back Russians to a pre 1990 isolation and shortage of consumer goods and luxuries. No MacDonald, Coca Cola, Ikea, Nike, Carlsberg beer, Este Lauder make up, and Disney movies, among others such as Toyota, Mercedes etc.

The difference is that the bombs are falling on Ukrainians, a people that have close cultural ties with Russia. They look alike and speak Russian. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine is a former actor and comedian who had following in Russia. He was elected by 74% of the votes. 

The difference is that Mariupol the second largest in Donetsk Oblast is largely and traditionally Russophone, while ethnically the population is divided about evenly between Russians and Ukrainians. It is not Aleppo, a foreign land.  In both cases, it’s shell to hell, surround and besiege, then shell to hell again and offer concessions. Russian are seeing it, or at least hearing of it.

Putin is hoping to counter the flow of information by encasing Russian in a news bubble where they only hear the official Russian version of 'fighting Nazism' (sic). Now he is starting to use his influence with extreme right factions in Europe to spread his propaganda. It worked well for him in the past; Brexit, Trump, anti-vaxx, etc. Again Western complacency and to a certain extent lack of focus emboldened him in the past. Will it serve him well this time? 

The Guardian -Thursday briefing: Fears Russia may use chemical weapons

Western officials have warned of “serious concern” that Vladimir Putin could use chemical weapons on Kyiv as Russian propagandists spread what the US has called “false claims about alleged US biological weapons labs and chemical weapons development in Ukraine”. “We should all be on the lookout for Russia to possibly use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine, or to create a false flag operation using them,” wrote the White House press secretary, Jen Psaki. Experts have pointed to the use of chemical weapons in the Syrian conflict, where Russia is involved. The Kremlin has produced no evidence to support its weapons lab claims, which were called “preposterous” by Psaki and have been dismissed by Ukraine’s government.

The broad assumption of impunity unquestionably was behind the invasion of Ukraine, it also put Putin in a psychological position where he believes that treating Ukraine same as Syria is feasible. He learned to pay no regard to international red lines. The sustained and overwhelming use of heavy bombardment aimed at undermining public confidence and as a tool of intimidation now being seen in Mariupol was honed in Syria, where Russia barely used precision-guided munitions. Will he go a further step and use chemical weapons?

Obama's ''drawing a line'' at the use of chemical weapons in Syria that became 'erasing the line' to compromise with Putin and save Assad emboldened Putin.

Will the NATO dithering and the complacency of the West emboldens him even more? Or did Europe learn the lesson?