The talk of the day is sanctions and whether sanctions make sense, or if they change anything. Will they make Putin reconsider his strategy? Will they affect his approval rates internally?
Many in the world and in particular in the Middle East say that sanctions are useless giving Iran as an exemple. The regime did not fall and the country survived. What about Putin and Russia, will they be affected by sanctions?
Bobby Ghosh wrote Iran’s Economic Resilience Is Mostly a Mirage. The government likes to boast about self-reliance in the face of sanctions, but in reality the regime in Tehran is struggling with rampant inflation, joblessness and other miseries.
Whatever is one's opinion numbers do not lie. Iran per capita GDP in 1978 was 2,168.87 USD. Today, four decades later it hovers around the same number. Talk about stagnation!
n June 2010, President Obama worked with Congress to pass the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act of 2010 (CISADA), which strengthened existing U.S. sanctions against Iran in the areas of refined petroleum sales, serious human rights abuses, and Iran's access to the international financial markets.
Sanctions' resulted in a contraction of GDP per capita: 6,599.66 USD in 2010, 4,904.33 USD in 2015, 2,282.55 USD in 2020.
High unemployment rates spiked and are set to increase given Iran’s economic struggles. An estimated 12.4% of the population was out of work in 2021, according to IMF projections. There are shortages of water, electricity, consumer goods, and the Iranian Rial crushed and is in continuous deterioration.
The Iranian people are suffering, they have been protesting for a decade to no avail. (see list of major flashpoints below)
So why is Iran still defiant? Simply because it is a religious dictatorial regime who does not care for the wellbeing of citizens. Does Putin falls under the same category of ruler? Will Russians accept a dramatic change in everyday life and lifestyle?
Sanctions are blowing holes in the Russian economy from overseas asset freeze on the Russian central bank to a ban on buying sparkling wine from a bottler in Crimea. The rouble has collapsed, there were long lines in front of ATM machines, Russian can no longer pay by visa card, they cannot buy a MacDonald, they cannot travel, they cannot buy an iPhone, they cannot watch a Hollywood movie, in short, they have been pushed out of the consumer world they love so much.
Even if oligarch and the regime dodge some of the sanctions, will Russians accept a form of return to Soviet era of isolation? a total change of lifestyle, for what? occupying Ukraine?
Putin has imposed a media block, Russians are living in a 'truth' bubble. Yet banning Facebook, Twitter, and other social media sites will definitely get the addicted young generation to wonder why?
We are seeing protests daily in many cities despite the harsh treatment and arrest that can lead to imprisonment.
March 6th, Russia's interior ministry said that police had detained around 3,500 people, including 1,700 in Moscow, 750 in St Petersburg and 1,061 in other cities. I doubt these are accurate number, we have to assume greater numbers.
Anyway, this is an impressive and indicative number giving the risk these people are taking.
It may take years, but the sanctions in addition to the 'no war' movement are the seed of change. In what direction, we need to wait and see.
The main question remains, how much the people of Europe are ready to sacrifice for supporting freedom and democracy, because sanctions will also hurt Europe.
Fact Sheet: Protests in Iran
2017-18 Economic Protests
On December 28, 2017, demonstrators in Mashhad, Iran’s second largest city, took to the streets to protest the government’s economic policies and the high prices of basic goods and commodities. The demonstrations quickly spread across the country to over 140 cities in every province, organized largely through social media messaging apps. The scope of the protests also expanded from economic woes to Iranian involvement in the Middle East and calls for regime change. Slogans included “not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life for Iran,” “leave Syria, think about us,” “Khamenei, shame on you, leave the country alone!" and "death to the dictator.” The protests were the largest and most intense since the 2009 Green Movement. But unlike the Green Movement, the 2017-18 protests were largely leaderless and disorganized. After two weeks of protests, at least 22 protesters were killed and more than 3,700 were detained.
2019 Price Hike Protests
Detained: At least 7,000
Flashpoint: Fuel Prices
Location and Scope: Protests spread to at least 100 cities and towns with more than 200,000 participants
In a surprise overnight announcement on November 15, 2019, Iran hiked gas prices—by up to 300 percent—and introduced a new rationing system. The government’s goal was to raise funds to help the poor, but it backfired. The protests swept 100 cities over four days. They first broke out in oil-rich Khuzestan province, in Iran’s southwest but quickly spread to other regions, including Mashhad, a conservative stronghold and Iran’s second largest city, in the northwest. Demonstrators reportedly chanted anti-government slogans, including, "Have shame Rouhani, Leave the country alone!"
The regime used tear gas, water cannons and live ammunition to disperse the protesters. The government also nearly completely shut down the internet for five days to prevent images of the protests and crackdown from spreading over social media.
By December 2, at least 208 protesters had been killed, according to Amnesty International. The Center for Human Rights in Iran estimated that 4,000 people were arrested. Iran rejected the reports by outside groups. The State Department estimated that the regime killed more than 1,000 people, including at least a dozen children, but acknowledged that verification was difficult. Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, said U.S officials “know for certain” that the death toll was in the “many, many hundreds.”
January 2020 Protests
Killed: unknownDetained: at least 30
Flashpoint: Government cover-up of the downing of a Ukrainian airliner
Scope and Location: Protests began in Tehran but spread to all major cities, including at least 18 university campuses
On January 11, 2020, Iranians launched anti-government protests after officials admitted that the Revolutionary Guards had mistakenly shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752. All 176 people on board, including dozens of Iranians, were killed. Iranians were enraged at the government’s incompetence and for denying responsibility for three days. In Tehran, demonstrators gathered at university campuses and shouted “Death to the liars.” On the second day, protests spread across other major cities despite the deployment of riot police, the Revolutionary Guards and plainclothes police. Protests were reportedly at 18 university campuses across the country. Demonstrators shouted “Clerics get lost!” and deliberately avoided walking over American and Israeli flags. Police reportedly used tear gas and live ammunition against protestors. By January 16, protests had largely subsided. Only small demonstrations were reported in Isfahan and Sanandaj during the funeral services in both cities for people killed who were on the flight.
Iranian officials said that 30 people had been arrested for their involvement in “illegal” demonstrations. They dismissed reports about violent crackdowns and said “legal protests” would be tolerated. Tehran’s police chief acknowledged that security forces had fired tear gas but denied that they had used live ammunition in the crackdown. It was difficult for international groups to gather estimates on number of protestors killed and detained. The government restricted journalists to limited coverage of the five-day protests.
The 2021 Iranian protests
are ongoing protests in Iran, in many regions, to protest the ongoing water shortages and blackouts of electricity all over Iran, fuelling public anger. Protests erupted on 15 July to protest the water shortages and crisis, but soon was met with police violence and brutality.
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