Wednesday, June 19, 2013

The Syrian opposition need to rise to the occasion

Today I read a post from a Syrian activist that goes 

“Interesting that G8 mentions Al-Qaeda by name but not Hezbollah”

My answer:      
Hezbollah and Iran are part of the “game of nations” which makes them predictable players.
A good example is what happened during the run for the presidential election in Iran. The Ayatollah establishment read well the national and international pulse and concluded that it is time to release popular steam and entice the West to some flexibility as to economic sanctions. They allowed the weakest and most conservative of reformers to run for the elections. In parallel they allowed the conservative voice to be split over many conservative candidates. That is a smart move.

On the other hand al-Qaeda is a loose entity. It is the scarecrow that allows Obama and Putin to work out a new cold war style agreement. Once again it will be at the expense of the Arab renaissance. It is a sort of flash back to the sixties/seventies cold war scenario of limited and contained struggles within delimited borders of influence between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Remember the Prague Spring, Pinochet, Apartheid, and Cuba. Remember in the Arab world the demise of Arab nationalist civil movements by military dictatorship or Islamic movements backed by the U.S. for some and the Soviet Union for others.

My answer to the Arab intelligentsia, stop blaming your enemies for being good strategists!
The Syrian oppositions need NOW to think out of the box and adopt an effective strategy.

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