EU gaz embargo will strengthen Putin, not weakens him

 Pressuring the EU to issue an all ban embargo on gaz will have dire effects on the war in the long run.

 Some European countries like Austria rely 80% on Russian gaz. Cutting the supplies now would be suicide. Austrians support Ukraine but not unconditionally. They are all for humanitarian aid, but more than half were against the visit of the PM, Karl Nehammer to visit Zelensky. Most Austrians are for preserving neutrality.

Austria is not alone in this respect though other EU countries fall in the in between lane. People sympathize, want to help Ukraine, feel it is a fair battle, but all of this stops when they are asked to give up everything. They are ready to sacrifice a bit, but no more. 

Even countries like the UK and the US who support fully Ukraine fall within the same category. They do not rely heavily on Russian energy so the consequences of embargo are minimal. Even these minimal effects such as soaring energy prices are badly received. Let's not forget that energy fuels most of the inflation. Energy cost enter into manufacturing, supply chains, and so many other sectors that it would be impossible to list them all.

Inflation is already affecting the elections in the US favoring the Republicans that are today linked to Trump and his favourable approach to Putin. What do you think it will do in Europe? It will lead to the election of extreme right parties who overwhelmingly support Putin and have close ties with him.

The Hungarian elections proved that people will not elect based on their sympathy for Ukraine. Viktor Orbán never denied his good relation with Putin. Marie Le Pen in France is running on a platform of inflation, her close ties with Putin are not hurting her when facing Macron who is steadfast against Putin. The same applies all over Europe.

If extreme right parties win in Europe, it is a clear win for Putin and what he represents. It has been his aim for last decade, meddling in Brexit, Trump election, and so many other places. 

So let's stop this two dimensional approach and do not push the EU to commit suicide. 

Sanctions need to be well thought. If they hurt the sanctioning country more than the culprit country, then they are vane. Specially when the targeted country is a plutocracy or dictatorship where dissent is squelched violently and through misinformation. 

Iran is a good example.