Thursday, October 24, 2019

Any hope for Lebanon's popular revolt?


Middle East Transparent 23 October 2019

 All over Lebanon people remain in the streets protesting, chanting, singing, dancing,  even organizing live concert shows! It does not look as if it will calm down soon.
For the first time, all regions in Lebanon are witnessing the same protest, at the same time.

For the first time, all sects are equally participating. One could even say that all political parties’ members are in the streets dissenting with their own leadership. We even hear protesters trying to defend their historic leaders but then saying, ‘all of them’ means all of them, a slogan aimed to say that all the political class is responsible and should be changed. The army and the security forces are protecting the protest.

Indeed, an unheard of phenomenon in Lebanon, and quite rare worldwide. The numbers are impressive. Almost a third of the population is in the streets. Virtually unbelievable. Can you imagine protests of about 25 million in Germany? Or 21 million in England?

What can happen? and what is the solution, or can constitute a victory for the protest?

If the country and economy are at a standstill for long, the Lebanese Pound may collapse and whether a new government is formed or not, nobody can save the economy when the tumble starts. Nobody knows what will happen then. Surely not a victory for the protest movement.

The protestors demands are, if grouped many, but can be summarized by: put an end to corruption and nepotism, hold the responsible accountable, and return the stolen moneys. Valid demand, but who will do it, what is practically the process? A resignation of the Cabinet will not change anything as it is the same political parties in Parliament that will nominate a new Prime Minister. All agree that the main problem is not Saad Hariri himself.

Another resounding demand is resignation of the President, the Prime Minister, and the Speaker. Impossible demand, there is no process in law and if it happens, then who rules the country and form a new authority that can herald the demands? Some are calling out of despair for military rule. Luckily, this is highly improbable in Lebanon where there is no tradition or culture of militarism.

In short, the main demand is change. Changing the political class and system. The only possible solution is early Parliamentary elections according to a new election law. The Parliament will nominate the Prime Minister who nominates the ministers. All reforms can be implemented through this process if the elections lead to renewing the political class. The responsibility for renewing the political class will fall on the people protesting today in the streets.

How to do it? Focus the protest on demanding early Parliamentary elections. Hariri has declared that he is ready to call for early Parliamentary elections if this is what the protesters want. He said it twice. Why not use this way out?

The people dominating the parliament today which is coalition of Hezbollah, Aoun, and Amal will try not to go for it. Under the street pressure, they might accept hoping to manipulate the street once again through using sectarian populism.

In my opinion, this is the only solution.

If the Cabinet resigns now, then the Hezbollah, Aoun, and Amal will nominate a Cabinet that is even more their own. Freedoms and foreign policy will fall totally under their grasp, and they will crush, Syria style, any future protest.

Better aim for the people to take their destiny in hand and call for early elections. If they fail to dethrone the actual sectarian lords, then it is their responsibility.

Saturday, October 19, 2019

Anger in Lebanon, to where?


I have mixed feeling about the two days of anger in Lebanon.
I will not call it revolt or revolution, anger is a best description.

People have been living for long, and more so during the last two months in a state of continuous stress and anxiety.

They got used living in a country where electricity and water are scarce. They managed to find private solutions. Building generator or illegal private providers of electricity in each neighbourhood. Illegal private companies who sell citerns for all use water. Expensive bottled drinking water. 
The result is that for years they are paying two electricity bills and three water payments, one for official utilities, one buying water cisterns, and one buying bottled water.
They got used to paying the price in pollution and quality of life. Generators churn fumes in the air and water is salty and often unsafe to drink.
On top of it, subsidizing electricity (sic) is costing the country 25% of the country debt on yearly basis. A bizarre occurrence:  electricity is subsidized while the private person pays two electricity bills that amount to the most expensive electricity per kilowatt in the whole world!

They got used to a cloud of bad smell enveloping the capital since the garbage crisis started 5 years ago.
They got used to a traffic situation that is so complex that you cannot move around without grinding your teeth.
They got used to unjustified price hikes in most consumables, food products, and 'luxuries'.
They got used to waiting ages for website loading and suden 5 minutes cuts in connectivity. In short they got used to a slow, unreliable, and very expensive internet connection.
They got used to the most expensive mobile phone rates in addition to being unreliable.

They got used to so many governmental services failing, tried to find private solutions being entrepreneurs, to the cost of increasing dramatically their cost of life.

Suddenly and a year ago, they started being bombarded by politicians and the sensationalist media of warning of a country going bankrupt. Reforms are badly needed. Then the reform plans started to becoming actions to balance the budget through the levying of undiscriminate taxes rather than cutting spending in a public sector that became a hungry ogre eating all taxes and government income.

Two months ago the campaign was hyped and exchange rates became unstable. The level of anxiety increased and reached dangerous levels. Then came the news of a tax on WhatsApp use. Free communication was a breathing space for young people. It was the drop that topped the vase of despair.

An explosion of anger was the results.
Young people took to the streets, families and older people followed them, disturbers and anarchists followed.

What is encouraging is that those who took to the street come from all religions and sects. What is remarkable and hopeful is that the Shia civil society joined the protest and took to the streets for a first time since long out of the control of Hezbollah and Amal. This could be a return to the unity and secular national identity the country witnessed on 14th of March 2005.

What is worrying is that the movement is clearly and until now a protest movement without focus or leadership. A factor that might undermine its continuity or ability to drive real change.
What is more worrying is that if the movement disturbs the status quo without leading to solutions, it might drive the country who is on the edge to economic chaos.

Lebanon is wobbling on the edge of hope and hopelessness. I am afraid.













Sunday, October 13, 2019

The story of Syria, Turkey, and the Arab League

I do not like what Erdogan is doing in Syria though he has the tacit approval of the US, Russia, and the EU. They make statements but if he manages to insure the safe zone quickly, they would be happy. It would solve the problem of some refugees and would reign the separatist hopes of the Syrian Kurds.
If he fails to do it swiftly, then they can pretend to have been against the incursion and that they really care for Kurdish hopes.

I might be wrong but this is how it appears if we follow talk versus action including the Security Council confusion.

What I do not understand is the position of the Arab League.

Syria has been sanctioned and is no more attending the Arab League meetings. This is clear position that Assad is no more the legal representative of Syria. Russia and Iran are more than present in Syria. In a friendly tug of war they both rule Syria.
The Americans controle an area and have a say while Israel is allowed to rule the air.
Almost half the Syrian population are refugees in neighbouring countries and the Assad regime has failed or do not want to return them.
Sovereignty??

How can they talk about Syrian sovereignty and Turkish invasion?
The targeted safe zone is a region that is not under the control of the government or the Russians, or the Iranians. It is mostly a US controlled area.
Anyway during all the talks about a peaceful solution of the Syrian crisis whether in the UN or the following parallel conferences initiated by Putin, the Syrian Assad government and Arab League were the invisible missing presence.
The Arab League lost its right to defend Syria when for a decade they stood watched the Syrian people slaughtered by Assad, Daesh, Russia, and the Iranians.

So why now are they riding their high their horses? Surely not out of care for Syria, rather emanating from regional competition with Turkey. But they are hopeless to really face Turkey. Though they might be able to hurt its economy by curbing Arab tourism in Turkey.

Ayway Erdogan policies have weakened Turkey economically. Sanctions from the US and the EU might be a blow that Turkey will not be able to fend.






Saturday, October 12, 2019

What about the US dollar crisis in Lebanon?

I will not mention the economic crisis and the corruption.
I will not mention the crazy decision of politicians to approve, just before the elections, a salaries increase for public sector employees.
These same politicians have repetitively acknowledged that the Lebanese public sector is overstaffed.
I will not mention economic indicators that prove the evasion in customs taxes.
I will no mention the debt increase due to the electricity subsidies deficit

Let us just try to look at some of what has and is happening in direct relation with what has been dubbed "unavailability of US dollars in the market".

First let me explain that we are not talking about a crunch in foreign currency.
We are talking about banknote US dollar.
There is no problem in transferring or issuing letters of credit or paying by credit card or checks.
But if you want to withdraw in banknote more than 5,000.- the banknote may not be available.

I wonder if I could, in any country of the European Union, go to the bank and ask for 100,000 US dollars in banknote, and expect to get them on the spot!
I wonder if I could in the US go the bank and ask for 100,000 Euros in banknote, and expect to get them on the spot!

You used to be able to do it in Lebanon, and the Lebanese are surprised why they cannot practice such irregular action today!

Kafkaesque!

But what is behind the 'crisis' ?

  • US banknotes are seeping to Syria in a clear attempt by the Syrian regime to break sanctions. Maybe from Syria to Iran?
  • Hezbollah needs US dollar banknotes to pay its due from outside the banking sector as sanction are being religiously implemented by Lebanese banks after the closure of Jammal bank.
  • The variation in the exchange rate is less than 5% which should not be a real problem for importers who import in USD and sell in Lebanese pound when their profits hit sometimes unlawfully 25%. 
  • Pricing and paying in USD is contrary to the law yet it is regular practice which drives citizens to carry USD banknotes instead of Lebanese Pounds creating a parallel economy.
Conclusion: the problem is in the inability or unwillingness of the Government to uphold the rule of law + extreme individualism of the population with no ethics of nationalism + political parties that rely on populism and sectarianism to rule with no concern for national interest. 

and surely, a culture of acceptable corruption and disregard for laws.









Thursday, October 3, 2019

Lebanon's unbelievable saga with electricity: Kafkaesque!

They are oblivious, poor children growing up in such an environment!
People complain about everything, among them electricity, but it is not a priority though all financial reports say that almost 50% of the debt is due to electricity subsidies. Fuel for electricity generation is subsidized because... nobody really  knows why. Some say because cost of production is high, some say because whole areas in the country do not settle their bills...

Let me explain. After the end of the civil war, 30 years ago, electricity was almost fully restored. Then, after 2006 Israeli attack, it was also almost fully restored.
Then, God knows why the country entered into a cycle of daily at last 3 hours electricity cuts that sometimes increase the 12 hours a day.

Yet, this is how Beirut looks at night.
How come?

The Lebanese are ingenious as individuals and traders by nature. Maybe a remnant of the phonetician era?

Each building set up a generator of its own and entrepreneurs set neighborhood generators and sell 5 or 10 amperes of electricity to households. A quite lucrative business.
Meanwhile, for a decade politicians are discussing solutions and lately came up with the weird idea to rent electricity generation vessels. The cost, more than building new plants or buying from neighboring countries. Some say it is corruption, some say incompetence...
Anyway, the proud Lebanese politicians refuse to sell the national assets of the country and insist on allowing private generator owners to do business from outside the economic system, not paying taxes or following any regulations to prevent pollution.

Conclusion, thousands of generators are churning fumes in the air happily every day. And believe me, you can feel it in your lungs and head!

Yet, when I talk to people, they complain, but honestly are not concerned except for the extra monthly bill they are paying.
Why should they care when they really do not suffer from electricity cuts.

Whenever there is a cut, we jump start the generator and presto! Electricity is back.

What these people do not see cannot hurt them. They do not see the fumes that these generators churn int the air they breath. 

They are oblivious, poor children growing up in such an environment!