I started seeing posts saying Hezbollah won the elections.
Looking under the surface the results are not bleak, they are rather good and give hope.
Hezbollah was full blown trying to high-jack the elections. They used the power or intimidation and money to prove they are the strongest player on the popular level.
They first used all electoral strategies such as encouraging from back-doors people against them to present themselves for the elections, increasing the distribution of votes in strongholds of their opponents. They used intimidation by force in their own regions to prevent multiple electoral lists. On the day of the elections they used money to an unprecedented level to buy votes in their strongholds. On the day of the elections they blocked streets to prevent people in Beirut from voting.
The results show a win of 55 to 57 deputies out of 128 for the 14th of March trend which are ideologically against Hezbollah.
The remaining deputies are distributed between Hezbollah, Amal, and the Free Patriotic Movement.
The Aoun group called the Free Patriotic Movement who is allied to Hezbollah but also to Hariri had to use a discourse distancing itself from Hezbollah during the elections to be able to achieve its gains.
The gains in the Shia community are linked to AMAL strength in the South rather than Hezbollah. Though they are allied, AMAL is not a religious party and attracts lots of the non-sectarian Shia population.
Very indicative that Hezbollah lost in its Bekaa stronghold 2 seats.
The people who gained most from this elections are the Lebanese Forces who adopted a non-sectarian discourse that stressed the adherence to a strong national policy including the monopoly of security forces and army as to ownership of weapons. Practically and anti Hezbollah discourse.
The Hariri group called the Future movement lost some of its deputies because, among other reasons, of their undefined 14th of March policies. They were not able to mobilize their base in Beirut and lost votes in the North to more extreme Sunni parties. In addition they gave a lot to the Aoun group but did not gain a lot of votes from them.
In fact the low voter turnout of less than 50% indicates that people were not happy with the electoral discourse and a majority of these people are by heart 14th of March yet disenfranchised by how the 14th of March parties failed to promote their freedom and independence agenda in addition to their failure at addressing issues of concern to the voter such as infrastructure and corruption.
The voting of people for Bahia Hariri and Michel Mour indicates that voters are faithful to people that work hard on their behalf.
The voting of people for Nadime and Sami Gemayel indicates that the real popular mood is not in the absolute against 'political families' as they are called, but rather in line with political strategies and political discourse.
In fact, despite it all the Lebanese voter has showed awareness and that he is much less polarized along sectarian lines than what the politicians believe.
Looking under the surface the results are not bleak, they are rather good and give hope.
Hezbollah was full blown trying to high-jack the elections. They used the power or intimidation and money to prove they are the strongest player on the popular level.
They first used all electoral strategies such as encouraging from back-doors people against them to present themselves for the elections, increasing the distribution of votes in strongholds of their opponents. They used intimidation by force in their own regions to prevent multiple electoral lists. On the day of the elections they used money to an unprecedented level to buy votes in their strongholds. On the day of the elections they blocked streets to prevent people in Beirut from voting.
The results show a win of 55 to 57 deputies out of 128 for the 14th of March trend which are ideologically against Hezbollah.
The remaining deputies are distributed between Hezbollah, Amal, and the Free Patriotic Movement.
The Aoun group called the Free Patriotic Movement who is allied to Hezbollah but also to Hariri had to use a discourse distancing itself from Hezbollah during the elections to be able to achieve its gains.
The gains in the Shia community are linked to AMAL strength in the South rather than Hezbollah. Though they are allied, AMAL is not a religious party and attracts lots of the non-sectarian Shia population.
Very indicative that Hezbollah lost in its Bekaa stronghold 2 seats.
The people who gained most from this elections are the Lebanese Forces who adopted a non-sectarian discourse that stressed the adherence to a strong national policy including the monopoly of security forces and army as to ownership of weapons. Practically and anti Hezbollah discourse.
The Hariri group called the Future movement lost some of its deputies because, among other reasons, of their undefined 14th of March policies. They were not able to mobilize their base in Beirut and lost votes in the North to more extreme Sunni parties. In addition they gave a lot to the Aoun group but did not gain a lot of votes from them.
In fact the low voter turnout of less than 50% indicates that people were not happy with the electoral discourse and a majority of these people are by heart 14th of March yet disenfranchised by how the 14th of March parties failed to promote their freedom and independence agenda in addition to their failure at addressing issues of concern to the voter such as infrastructure and corruption.
The voting of people for Bahia Hariri and Michel Mour indicates that voters are faithful to people that work hard on their behalf.
The voting of people for Nadime and Sami Gemayel indicates that the real popular mood is not in the absolute against 'political families' as they are called, but rather in line with political strategies and political discourse.
In fact, despite it all the Lebanese voter has showed awareness and that he is much less polarized along sectarian lines than what the politicians believe.
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